Just over a week before election day, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made a joke which went viral. At Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden that night, Hinchcliffe said, “there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico.” The comment sparked a powerful, unified response from Puerto Ricans, who denounced the former and future President’s campaign for its perceived racism and ignorance.
Prominent Puerto Ricans, from celebrities like Bad Bunny and Jennifer Lopez to influential leaders such as the Archbishop of San Juan, took a firm public stand against the remarks. Major media outlets dubbed the backlash Trump’s “October surprise,” and the intensified support from Puerto Rican leaders bolstered confidence among those predicting a Harris victory.
Instead, the election saw an emphatic Republican win, with the highest Latino support for the GOP since the Bush era. Trump led among Latino men by a striking 12-point margin over Harris, and while Harris did secure the Latino women’s vote, the Democratic lead in this group narrowed by 17 points. So, what drove this shift?
Shifting away from identity politics
In the past, Puerto Ricans like many other Latino groups have been viewed as a monolithic voting group. While Puerto Ricans historically leaned Democratic, recent trends reveal a shift toward issue-driven voting over party loyalty. This shift was starkly visible in the 2024 election, where many Puerto Ricans cast their ballots for Republican candidates, swayed by economic concerns, rising inflation, and frustration with the handling of issues like border security. This aligns with the broader shift of Hispanic voters leaving behind identity politics and voting with their wallets.
A Pew Research Center survey in September underscored the economic worries driving this shift: 85% of Latino reported that the economy was ‘very important’ when deciding which presidential candidate they would vote for. A UnidoUS Exit Poll survey after the 2024 Presidential election echoed this with 46% of Puerto Ricans citing cost of living and inflation as their most important voting issue followed by 36% jobs and the economy. Voters surveyed by the Pew Research Center also highlighted healthcare, guns and immigration as key issues. Latinos, like all other voters were driven to make voting decisions based on everyday concerns. Trump’s approach of addressing Latinos like all other voters, by focusing on cost of living, the economy, and border concerns, apparently resonated with many in the community.
A graph showing the percent of Latino voters who considered each key issue ‘very important’ when deciding which candidate to vote for in the 2024 Presidential election. Data collected for a September 2024 Pew Center Research Survey.
The impact of Puerto Rican Voters in battleground states
In the final days of the campaign, both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris visited Reading, Pennsylvania—a town where more than a third of residents are Puerto Rican—underscoring the importance of this demographic. In Berks County, where Reading is located, the republican campaign seems to have had an impact with 55.8% of voters going in favor of Trump according to a CNN exit poll.
According to 2023 ACS data, 5.6 million Puerto Ricans live stateside, with large communities in battleground states: 1.2 million in Florida, nearly a million in New York, and close to half a million in Pennsylvania. In Florida, Osceola County, a county where 27% of the population is Puerto Rican, flipped Republican, with Trump outperforming Harris by over 13,000 votes compared to Biden’s previous margin. Additionally, Puerto Rican-heavy counties like Hampden and Hillsborough, which leaned Democratic in prior elections, favored Trump this time, highlighting a shift among Latino voters.
A table showing how key counties with high percentages of Puerto Ricans voted in the 2024 Presidential Election. Data collected from U.S. Census ACS 1-year estimates 2023 and CNN 2024 Presidential Election Exit Polls.
Implications
With 36.2 million Hispanic Americans now eligible to vote—more than twice the 14.3 million eligible in 2000—the influence of Latino voters has grown significantly, presenting opportunities and challenges for both political parties. For Democrats, the 2024 election served as a wake-up call; it exposed the risk of assuming Puerto Ricans and Latinos as a steadfast base, highlighting that these voters expect their economic and social concerns to be addressed more concretely. Many Latino voters, like all other Americans, are driven by key issues like inflation, jobs, and immigration. For Republicans, this shift offers a chance to connect with a rapidly growing demographic by addressing these priority issues and making gains among Puerto Rican and broader Hispanic communities.
