Confusion among Voters over Puerto Rico’s Status

A recent Gaither International survey of Puerto Rico voters revealed possible confusion over Puerto Rico’s current political status and  future possibilities for the U.S. territory as voters get ready to cast their ballots in the November plebiscite.  Most notably, some likely voters may not fully appreciate that the “sovereign free association” option on the ballot essentially represents a choice for independence.

Puerto Rico’s current status

Puerto Rico is an unincorporated territory of the United States. There is no real legal uncertainty over this, but only 2/3 of the voters surveyed recognized this fact.

Instead, 11% believed that Puerto Rico is an independent country. Another 17% did not believe that Puerto Rico is a nation or a territory; this may reflect those who mistakenly believe that Puerto Rico has a “compact of free association” with the United States, or that it is a “commonwealth.”

Researchers noted that only 10% of those who did not graduate from high school were able to identify Puerto Rico as a territory. However, even among those with post-graduate education, only 82% go the correct answer.

Puerto Rico’s future status

Puerto Rico plans to hold another local plebiscite in November, 2024, with the three options identified in the Puerto Rico Status Act:

• statehood
• independence
• sovereign free association (independence with a free association option)

Asked which of these options they planned to vote for, respondents in the survey put statehood first:

• statehood: 45%
• independence: 11%
• sovereign free association: 25%

Another 19% of respondents to this question did not choose one of the three possibilities.

However, the answers were different when voters were asked whether they would vote for statehood or independence.

• statehood: 73%
• independence: 27%

Free association is a form of independence

It appears that only one third of survey respondents who chose free association were willing to commit to independence. This suggests that voters may not realize that free association with the United States is, in fact, independence.

There are three nations currently in free association with the United States. All three are independent nations. While there have been other definitions of “free association” in other times and places, for the United States, there is no evidence that Puerto Rico could negotiate any other sort of relationship besides independence in a Compact of Free Association. The federal government has never agreed to any proposal for a “best of both worlds” status.

Independence and Sovereign Free Association: What’s the Difference?

A 2017 letter from Department of Justice Acting Deputy Attorney General Dana Boente explained that the federal government has in fact “rejected as unconstitutional…proposals that would have given Puerto Rico a status outside of the territory clause but short of full independence.” Boente clarified at the time that “a vote for ‘Free Association’ is a vote for complete and unencumbered independence.”

Clarification is essential

The November plebiscite is a referendum, a measure of the opinions of voters which is not binding on Congress and is not expected to change Puerto Rico’s status. A binding vote is hoped for the future. Before such a vote takes place, it is essential that Puerto Rico voters understand their options. The results of the Gaither International survey suggest that some voters are confused about the meaning of “sovereign free association” and may not realize that it is, at its core, independence.