Puerto Rico has never favored independence from the United States; however, the percentage of votes received by independence in the most recent status vote was 11%. That’s a small percentage, but it’s almost twice as much as in any previous referendum. Separatists are working hard to make this seem like a groundswell of support. And while independence has not been popular on the Island, it is a constitutionally viable option. As such, it’s something voters should think about.
Just as voters considering statehood can look at the current 50 states to get an idea of how that status option might look, voters who are considering supporting independence for Puerto Rico can look at independent Caribbean nations to see examples of how that could work out.
Independent Caribbean nations
There are 13 independent nations in the Caribbean:
- Antigua and Barbuda
- Bahamas
- Barbados
- Dominica
- Cuba
- Dominican Republic
- Grenada
- Haiti
- Jamaica
- Saint Kitts and Nevis
- Saint Lucia
- Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
- Trinidad and Tobago
There are many ways to determine how any given country is doing. The chart below compares these nations in terms of three metrics: Gross Domestic Product per capita, which is a general measurement of economic performance; World Happiness Score, which is a measure of national happiness based on large-scale surveys of populations worldwide; and World Bank’s Political Stability Index, which measures the safety and stability of life in each nation.
We can see that the various nations are in different positions. Economically, Haiti is in the worst state, with a GDP of $1,800 to $2,000 per person, while the Bahamas come in at $33,000 to $37,000.
Compared with Puerto Rico
By comparison, Puerto Rico’s per capita GDP is $39,854.
A more accurate measure for Puerto Rico is Gross National Income (previously Gross National Product), reported in Trading Economics at $34,130 for 2024. This is a better figure for Puerto Rico because much of Puerto Rico’s GDP reflects profits for mainland and multinational companies which do not remain in Puerto Rico.
The World Happiness Score across the Caribbean independent nations averages 5.83, but it is brought down by Cuba and Haiti. All the other nations have happiness scores of 6.0 to 6.2. Puerto Rico has not been counted in the World Happiness Report in recent years, as public awareness of the fact that Puerto Rico is a territory of the United States, not a nation, has increased. The last score collected was 7.04, when it was first in the Caribbean region. It still seems to be.
The World Bank Political Stability Score ranges from -2.25, the worst possible, to 2.25, the best possible. Factors include the frequency of political violence and terrorism, the likelihood of the government’s being overthrown, and chancres of going to war. Caribbean independent nations range from Haiti, -1.5, to Dominica at 1.4. Dominica is currently the second most political stable country in the world after Liechtenstein. Liechtenstein has a population of about 40,000, as does St. Kitts and Nevis, and Dominica has about 70,000. Puerto Rico sits at .5. Among Caribbean countries with populations large enough to populate a U.S. city, only the Bahamas and St. Lucia outrank Puerto Rico for political stability.
The three factors interact
Unsurprisingly, Haiti, which is one of the poorest and most politically unstable countries in the world, is also one of the unhappiest nations in the Caribbean. Barbados and the Bahamas are the most prosperous independent nations in the region, but their happiness scores are no higher than less prosperous nations with comparable levels of political stability. In fact, political stability is a better predictor than economic position for fractional differences in the happiness scores. All the countries with happiness scores higher than 6.0 have political stability scores of .5 or higher. Puerto Rico would also be in this group.
Cuba is the least happy except for Haiti. Haiti and Puerto Rico are near neighbors, but Cuba and Puerto Rico have the most in common from the point of view of history and culture.
Cuba is happier than Haiti, but less happy than Jamaica, which is both poorer and less politically stable than Cuba. However, Cuba’s authoritarian government may be stable in spite of high levels of dissatisfaction and the economic data is estimated, since the information is not freely shared. Residents of Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti all face deprivation.
Among the less troubled nations, comparisons with the territory of Puerto Rico can be less clear. Puerto Rico and the Bahamas, for example, both have strengths and weaknesses. Their circumstances and histories are so different, though, that it’s hard to make a fair comparison.
What does this mean for Puerto Rico?
Puerto Rico’s position now is better, in terms of the economy and happiness scores, than its independent neighbors. Its level of political stability is right about in the middle. Being a territory and struggling to attain a permanent political status is not a stable position, even though terrorism and political violence are not major problems. It is, however, hard to predict how things would go for Puerto Rico as an independent nation. Part of the equation would include the political structure of the Island under independence. The Independence Party has long been associated with socialism, and the nations that agitate for Puerto Rico’s independence are countries known for limited civil rights and authoritarian regimes. A Republic of Puerto Rico might well be, as Berrios hoped, a Socialist Republic of Puerto Rico.
Puerto Rico’s current economic position is better than most Latin American nations as well as all Caribbean independent nations, but that is a result of Puerto Rico’s being a territory of the United States. Statehood can be expected to lead to greater prosperity quickly, on the basis of the historical trends for U.S. territories, but independence would, again based on historical trends, lead first to economic hardship. How Puerto Rico would work through that and how the Island would end up would depend on leadership and what kind of arrangements these leaders could negotiate with the U.S. and other countries. This lack of certainty can also create a sense of instability.
At the very least, we can conclude that independence would not bring a quick and easy path to greater stability, prosperity, or happiness.
