Poll of Puerto Rico Voters Shows Statehood Popular, Possible Misunderstandings on U.S. Citizenship

El Nuevo Dia released results of a major political poll last week. Enthusiasm is strong:  92% expressed interest in the election, scheduled for November 5th,compared with 78% in 2020. Almost all respondents – 96% – say they intend to go to the polls. Voters are also clear on their status preference: 44% of registered voters favor statehood, 25% choose sovereignty in free association with the United States, and 19% prefer independence.

“Commonwealth” Excluded

Previous experience suggests that these very clear results will be plagued by attempts to muddy the waters. First, some party leaders are calling on their supporters to leave the question about Puerto Rico’s political status on the ballot blank. Proponents of a “commonwealth” status are objecting that their option is not on the ballot. They ask for a blank vote as a protest.

The “commonwealth” option is not included because it is unconstitutional and has been rejected by all three branches of the federal government. Even if a majority were to vote for it, Congress could not take action on it, as has been the case for decades. In the past, territorial status, the actual status quo, has been included. However, Puerto Rico voters rejected this option in the 2012 vote and Congress decided that it was no longer a viable alternative. The status choices on the upcoming ballot include only the non-territorial options: statehood or independence, with or without a free association arrangement that involves U.S. military control.

Independence and Sovereign Free Association: What’s the Difference?

Confusion over Free Association

Some voters may be confused by the relatively unknown “sovereign free association” choice. Supporters have in some cases described free association in the same terms as “enhanced commonwealth,” and there are voters who may confuse the two. This problem is exacerbated by the fact that the “Commonwealth of Puerto Rico” in English is “Associated Free State” in Spanish. That makes U.S. citizenship through that option realistic to Puerto Rican voters. Many people think they’re supporting the “perfected” sovereign commonwealth status that the “commonwealth” party has sought – but now with Congressional and White House approval. 

Here’s what the federal government understands about free association:

• A Freely Associated State (FAS) is a small country that grants the United States responsibility for its national security and provides the U.S. with military rights within its borders.
• Three Pacific Island nations have signed Compacts of Free Association (COFAs) with the United States: the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), the Republic of Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM).
• Citizens of the Freely Associated States are not U.S. citizens; they are citizens of their own nations.
• The defining feature of free association is U.S. military access and authority.
• These countries are members of the United Nations and conduct their own foreign policy, but the U.S. may overrule their government priorities if deemed inconsistent with U.S. defense policy (the “defense veto”). The U.S. may also deny access to these nations by military forces of any other nation (the “right of strategic denial”), including their water and air rights in a geopolitically strategic part of the Pacific.

Enhanced Commonwealth or Free Association?

“Enhanced Commonwealth” Proponents Migrating to Free Association and Independence, U.S. Citizenship Vulnerable

Historically, the split in Puerto Rico has been between statehood and “enhanced commonwealth.” As it has become more clear that “enhanced commonwealth” is an impossibility, many of the supporters of that position have had to rethink their views. Some cling to the idea of negotiating a special relationship, now in the form of a Compact of Free Association rather than a commonwealth compact, incorrectly assuming that their U.S. citizenship would remain secure.

Controversy over U.S. Citizenship in Free Association

The continuation of U.S. citizenship was a core part of “enhanced commonwealth” and many former supporters are migrating to “free association” and even independence on the mistaken belief that U.S. citizenship would continue. It would not. The only way to guarantee U.S. citizenship is under statehood.

Constitutional Experts: U.S. Citizenship in Puerto Rico Guaranteed Only With Statehood

Statehood continues to be the majority position, though, as it has throughout this century. On the mainland, polls of Americans as a whole have for decades shown that about two thirds favor statehood for Puerto Rico. Large numbers of Puerto Ricans have, as the saying goes, voted for statehood with their feet by migrating to states.