Although the U.S. Constitution did not give the people of Puerto Rico the right to help elect the President on November 5, Puerto Ricans were nonetheless able to cast a vote to steer the U.S. territory on a different course, away from their current undemocratic arrangement, and they did so.
In a referendum vote between statehood and independence (offered with or without a “free association” component), Puerto Ricans chose statehood with an unprecedented 56.87% of the vote. Independence came in second, also exceeding its previous high, with 30.84% of votes cast.
Statehood support has always been strong on the Island, but independence had never gained much more than 5% of the vote before 2024. Given the wide recognition that a loss of U.S. citizenship would “be viewed with hostility by the vast majority of Puerto Ricans,” observers are wondering what’s behind the jump in support for independence.
The first place to look is the ballot. Its definition of independence was accurate. It was also – by necessity of the constrained ballot space – short. It lacked nuance as to the real world implications of severing ties with the U.S. The ballot definition didn’t give examples. It wasn’t clear on exactly what would be lost or gained. So let’s take a look at how the ballot explained independence to voters, with an eye on the real world implications of an independent Puerto Rico.
Defining Independence
Each of the three ballot options had a definition in Spanish and in English. Here is the core of what the ballot said for independence:
1. Puerto Rico is a sovereign nation that has full authority and responsibility over its territory[.]
2. Puerto Rico is vested with [power over]… its own fiscal and monetary policy, immigration, trade, and [diplomatic] relations[.]
3. [B]irth in Puerto Rico or relationship to persons with statutory United States citizenship…shall cease to be a basis for United States nationality or citizenship, except that persons who have such United States citizenship have a right to retain United States nationality and citizenship for life … as provided by Federal law.
4. Puerto Rico will no longer be a possession of the United States for purposes of the Internal Revenue Code.
5. The Constitution and laws of the United States no longer apply in Puerto Rico[.]
For full text of the ballot language, click here.
Citizenship
Under independence, U.S. citizenship and immigration law – for Puerto Ricans and everyone else – will continue to be governed by the U.S. Congress, “as provided by Federal law.” Puerto Rico would have no power to stop changes in U.S. law. No country can. At the same time, current U.S. immigration and citizenship laws would certainly be under review and likely on the chopping block as a new neighboring nation of over 3 million current U.S. citizens is created.
Plainly stated, U.S. citizenship of people born in the territory of Puerto Rico could be rescinded by a future Congress if Puerto Rico were to become independent, and U.S. citizenship for future generations of Puerto Ricans would be especially precarious. Even those who have U.S. citizenship now, on the Island or stateside, have no clearly defined and explicit Constitutional protections. Puerto Ricans have statutory citizenship. At a minimum, new procedures would be established, and the winds of change have not exactly been blowing in an expansive or immigrant friendly direction lately. Just look at the Dreamers.
In view of the current political mood, descendants of U.S. citizens born in the new nation of Puerto Rico should expect to see stricter citizenship. immigration and travel requirements than exist today in federal law. The incoming Trump administration is even poised to work against allowing continued birthright citizenship, which would make it more difficult for citizens of Puerto Rico to arrange to give birth in the states to ensure U.S. citizenship for future generations.
Particularly in light of the unique nature of Puerto Rico’s statutory citizenship, even people who have United States citizenship and the right to retain United States nationality and citizenship for life “as provided by Federal law” today would still need to see what the next Congress does. And then the Congress after that. Any Congress can change the law at any time.
Taxation
The ballot informed voters that under independence “United States citizens and United States businesses in the nation of Puerto Rico will be subject to United States Federal tax laws[.]” This is true.
It is also true, however, that U.S. citizens in Puerto Rico will be denied access to U.S. Federal tax laws. Although most people who live in Puerto Rico do not have to pay federal tax on their income today, it is also true that a vast number of all U.S. citizens pay no income taxes due, at least in part, to refundable tax credits.
In 2021, Congress fully expanded the Child Tax Credit (CTC) to the people of Puerto Rico, making Puerto Rican residents eligible for up to $2,000 this year for each child. Congress also granted the Puerto Rican government as much as $600 million annually to match a local $200 million Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC).
The ballot made it clear to Puerto Rico voters that the “laws of the United States [would] no longer apply in Puerto Rico” under independence, specifically the Internal Revenue Code. As a newly sovereign country, EITC and CTC laws would no longer be in force, and working families would lose access to the related financial benefits.
Statehood Would Decrease Taxes for Working Families in Puerto Rico
Federal Benefits v. Foreign Aid
As U.S. law is rescinded, Puerto Rico would be precipitously dropped from U.S. programs such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and nutrition assistance. There may or may not be a gentle transition away from benefits, but the drop will come.
Separatists tend to paint the post-independence relationship of Puerto Rico and the United States in rosy tones. An article in Current Affairs imagines that “while independence would entail the loss of billions in federal transfers, that could be compensated by an economic transition plan as a form of reparations for more than a century of colonialism.” The author offers no details on such a plan, which makes sense, because historically, the United States has never undertaken a program of this scale. Given current budget pressures, the outlook for a generous payout is bleak.
In addition, as an independent nation, Puerto Rico would have no representation in Congress to argue for the imagined economic transition plan, let alone continued U.S. citizenship or tax breaks.
It is possible that the new Republic of Puerto Rico could get foreign aid from the United States, but what could Puerto Rico expect? Jamaica, a Caribbean nation with a population similar to that of Puerto Rico, received $65,552,665 in 2022. Puerto Rico received $6.5 billion, or roughly ten times this amount.
What’s Next?
The ballot language was not deceptive, but it also did not lay out all the details of independence, the precise details of which cannot be calculated at this time. Could a new nation of Puerto Rico negotiate a generous compensation package from Congress? Would current U.S. citizens living in states maintain their citizenship, perhaps on the condition that they confirm stateside residency? There is no expedited process for doing so now. It is impossible to know the exact answers to these questions before voting, but the facts available today do not necessarily paint a rosy picture.
Given the history of misleading and confusing definitions on plebiscite ballots, it is possible that ongoing misunderstandings fueled the unusual popularity of independence despite its ultimate loss. As the debate on Puerto Rico’s status continues to evolve, it will naturally take time to learn the real world implications of all available choices.
