Although Puerto Rico has no votes in the Electoral College and has no formal say in the vote for president, 75% of Puerto Ricans on the Island voted for Vice President Kamala Harris to lead the nation as President in a symbolic vote on Election Day.
While some observers could say that this means that Puerto Rico would vote Democratic as a state, the entirety of the evidence indicates that a more cautious, thoughtful approach is in order.
The Puerto Rican Vote Moved to the Right Stateside
The straw vote in Puerto Rico followed closely on the joke by Trump’s opening act at a large rally describing Puerto Rico as “a floating island of garbage.” There is no question that blowback from people living in Puerto Rico was fierce. At the same time, voters were also aware that their votes would not be counted. They may have voted with the intention of making a point, rather than with ideas about how the election might affect their future wellbeing.
Puerto Ricans living on the mainland, where their votes counted, tell a different story. Osceola County, the epicenter of Puerto Rican population in Florida, the state with the largest Puerto Rican population, voted for Trump. So did many other counties and states with large numbers of Puerto Rican residents.
Trump did not campaign in Puerto Rico. In fact, apart from the coarse joke and brief response to it, he and his campaign never mentioned Puerto Rico at all. He did campaign in Puerto Rico-heavy Berks County, Pennsylvania, where he gained 55.8% of the vote. The story was similar in Hampden County, Massachusetts, Polk County, Florida and Cumberland County, New Jersey, where President-Elect Trump won with 54.6%, 59.7% and 51.5% of the vote respectively based on CNN exit polls. While these exist polls cannot verify the precise percentage of Puerto Rican voters in these counties, the shift rightward in the mainland Puerto Rico community is noteworthy.
Analysis: Puerto Ricans, Latinos Turned Towards Trump in 2024
Island-Wide Elections in Puerto Rico Continue a Bipartisan Tradition
At the same time, Puerto Rico elected a Republican Governor and a Resident Commissioner who is expected to caucus with congressional Democrats.
Governor-elect González-Colón has served as resident commissioner since 2017, and her most recent victory was her third island-wide win. She previously was a leader in the Puerto Rican legislature, serving as Minority Leader of the Puerto Rico House of Representatives (2013-2017) and then Speaker of the House (2009-2013). She is a lifelong Republican.
González-Colón follows in the footsteps for Republican leader Luis Fortuño, who also served as both Resident Commissioner (2005-2009) and Governor (2009-2013).
Incoming Resident Commissioner Pablo José Hernández Rivera, a Democrat, enters the political arena at only 33 years old, with no previous island-wide victories but a bright future ahead.
Also notable is the switch in the local Puerto Rico legislature: Republican Thomas Rivera Schatz will return to his perch as Senate President in 2025 and Republican Carlos “Johnny” Méndez Nuñez will once again serve as Speaker of the House. Both leadership roles were held by Democrats during the previous congressional session, but Rivera Schatz and Méndez Nuñez had led their respective chambers from 2017 to 2021.
In short, based on the changing leadership of the local legislature and the two island-wide votes of 2024 with tangible impact, Puerto Rico acted like a swing state, not a blue state. Consistent with its history, Puerto Rico was decidedly purple.
Can We Predict Future Votes?
When Hawaii and Alaska became states, it was expected that Alaska would be a Democratic state and Hawaii would vote Republican. The exact opposite has been true. Many states were admitted in the 1800s in order to bring in additional republican votes for presidential elections, and not all have consistently continued to be red states.
History shows that predictions about political choices are not reliable. Puerto Rico, in particular, does not have a history of focusing on the Republican/Democratic divide. Either party could win the hearts of the new state of Puerto Rico. Perhaps that award will simply go to the party that tries the hardest to gain them.
