Puerto Rico’s population has been shrinking for about two decades. In recent years, the pace of population loss has slowed.
The chart above shows that Puerto Rico’s population growth in 2024 was negative 1.2% — that is, a population loss of 1.2%. While 2021 had a slightly lower population loss, this is otherwise the lowest level of loss since the peak in 2018, the peak of population shrinkage at nearly 4%. In 2017, the year of Hurricane Maria, Puerto Rico lost 3.64%.
Since 2010, Puerto Rico has lost 11.8% of its population. By comparison, the state which has lost the most residents is West Virginia, which lost 3.2%. Mississippi lost 0.2% of its population. West Virginia and Mississippi are among the poorest states in the Union, while Puerto Rico has more poverty than any state. It is likely that economic pressures have been part of the equation in all three cases.
Outmigration
West Virginia saw serious outmigration in the 2010s as its coal industry diminished and young people, having no desire to work in the coalfields in any case, left the state for better opportunities in other states.
Puerto Rico’s top cause of population loss is also outmigration, as Puerto Ricans leave the Island for greener pastures in the states. It’s a relatively easy move as Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens based on a law Congress passed in 1917. There are now nearly six million Puerto Ricans living in states, compared with just about 3.2 million on the Island. Young adults are the largest group leaving, often for educational or professional opportunities.
Aging population
As young people leave Puerto Rico, the population ages, and the overall population of the territory is decreased by rising death rates simply because the population is older.
The healthcare crisis in Puerto Rico leads to higher rates of most chronic diseases in Puerto Rico compared with the states. While some chronic diseases, including heart disease, cause fewer deaths in Puerto Rico, others, including Alzheimer’s, diabetes, kidney disease, pneumonia, and septicemia, show higher death rates in Puerto Rico. Reasons for this difference include lower socioeconomic security and limited access to healthcare.
Falling birth rate
The birth rate in Puerto Rico has been declining steadily, reaching a low of 5.8 babies for every thousand people in 2023. As the chart below shows, the birth rate has ticked up slightly in the past year and a half. However, it is still much lower than Puerto Rico’s death rate of 10.5 deaths per 1,000 people.
This means that even if outmigration stopped, Puerto Rico’s population would continue to shrink unless the birth rate increased.
Future possibilities
If nothing changes in Puerto Rico’s circumstances, the Island’s population can be expected to continue shrinking. A blooming economy, improved healthcare, and improved living conditions discouraging outmigration could change the current picture.
Would Puerto Rico’s political status make a difference? As a territory, Puerto Rico does not have sufficient power over its future to make the positive changes needed. As an independent nation, Puerto Rico would be likely to lose population to the states in much larger numbers, immediately, as people would take advantage of their U.S. citizenship before it is lost. As a state, Puerto Rico would be likely to see increased population, as did the previous territories which have become states.
