One of the options on the ballot for Puerto Rico’s plebiscite vote on November 5th is called sovereign free association, which is Puerto Rican independence with a U.S.-Puerto Rico Compact of Free Association (COFA).
A COFA is a sort of treaty between the United States and another sovereign nation. These agreements must be renewed periodically, and they can be changed or terminated by either side. The U.S. has COFAs with three independent nations, and these COFAs were recently renewed.
Leading up to that renewal, in June of 2023, a hearing of the U.S. House of Representatives Indo-Pacific Task Force examined “How the Compacts of Free Association Support U.S. Interests and Counter the PRC’s Influence.”
The PRC’s influence?
PRC in this case stands for “People’s Republic of China,” which is increasingly considered to be one of the most significant threats to the United States. “To be clear,” the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has explained, “the adversary is not the Chinese people or people of Chinese descent or heritage. The threat comes from the programs and policies pursued by an authoritarian government.” The FBI goes on to say, “[a]t the same time, the Chinese government is seeking to become the world’s greatest superpower through predatory lending and business practices, systematic theft of intellectual property, and brazen cyber intrusions.”
China has conflicts and sovereignty disputes with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia. The nation has targeted Laos with predatory lending practices, engaged in border disputes with India, and illegally occupied Tibet for more than half a century. The Chinese influence has grown beyond the Indo-Pacific region as well. China has intelligence operations in Cuba, and is investing heavily in economic influence in the Caribbean and Latin America.
The three Freely Associated States (FAS) of Palau, the Marshall Islands and Federated States of Micronesia are the closest area of U.S. military power to Asia. The FAS are significant in the geopolitical power struggles between the United States and China.
U.S. Military Rights are Unilateral under the COFAs
A transcript of the June 2023 hearing includes statements that reveal the subtle dynamics and true nature of the Compacts of Free Association. While supporters of the free association option in Puerto Rico often portray these agreements as bilateral deals which give Puerto Rico more power over the relationship with the United States, statements from experts at the hearing paint a very different picture.
Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), the senior Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee, pointed out in his opening statement that COFAs provide the United States with “important military access to the Pacific.”
Picking up on this theme, retired Army Colonel Albert Short, former Chief Negotiator for the 2003 COFA renewals, testified that when he was negotiating the COFAs, Members of Congress who had served as veterans of World War II had insisted that the Compacts include the right of U.S. “strategic denial.” He went on to explain the concept of strategic denial, saying, “it is the ability of the United States to foreclose this area, not only the islands, but also the waters and airspace from any third party.”
Today, Colonel Short explained, the U.S. has the right of strategic denial “even if the Compact is terminated, so it is a unilateral right on the part of the United States to continue or to terminate.”
U.S. control over strategic decisions in the freely associated states is not only unilateral, but is also permanent — “even if the Compact is terminated.”
“Separate from this standalone strategic denial that I just spoke about, as long as the Compact is in effect, the FAS governments, the foreign Freely Associated State governments, have the obligation to cease and desist from any action that the United States unilaterally determines is prejudicial to our defense and security arrangements,” Short continued. “It is a very, very powerful provision.”
Future recommendations
Retired Colonel Grant Newsham, U.S. Marine Corps, made recommendations for the future. “We should expand the U.S. military presence and make it as permanent as possible,” he said bluntly. “China’s long-term objectives are to use the area as springboard for expanding eastwards. They are already setting up the infrastructure on Latin America’s west coast.”
The hearings included extensive discussion of how the financial support of the Freely Associated States figured into the strategic value of the COFAs. Since the U.S. claims a permanent right to military control of the free associated nations, could the U.S. end financial support without consequences?
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) expressed his opinion on this with a thought experiment. “One way to look at this is to consider what would it cost us to secure that region if one or more states told America, ‘Look, you haven’t done what you said you would. The Chinese are offering us a ton of money. We renounce the treaties.’ What you would have to do is you would have to get a much bigger navy. You would have to have a lot more ships to cover this. You would have to, literally, send in the Marines. You would have America as an occupying force in this region, like we did in the Caribbean in the 1920s. And that costs a ton of money.”
Newsham made a similar point, saying that the amount of economic investment the U.S. makes in the Freely Associated States is “a pittance” compared with the cost of re-establishing strategic control over the area. Newsham also said, “The humanitarian assistance/disaster relief part of this, this is a very good opportunity for us. One, it serves a practical need, it addresses real problems. There are disasters that happen all the time. But it also allows you to set up the infrastructure that we need that is useful from a security standpoint. It allows you to bring in your allies and get them working.”
Lessons for Puerto Rico
Discussions in the hearing covered a range of issues, such as the need for respect for the Freely Associated States, the financial needs of these island nations, and the value of the long term relationships. Yet the focus of most of the discussions and all of the expert testimony was on the U.S. military and related strategic importance of those relationships.
The COFAs were negotiated and have been renegotiated with the goal of preserving U.S. military dominance.
Supporters of free association for Puerto Rico often focus on ongoing U.S. citizenship, continued involvement in federal programs, and possible reparations from the federal government – none of which are possible in current FAS relationships.
Free association adherents in Puerto Rico also tend to ignore the military underpinnings of the COFAs.
A realistic understanding of the Compacts of Free Association is critical for voters who have the option of choosing this arrangement for Puerto Rico’s future.
