Net migration from Puerto Rico has been high in recent decades since population hit 3.8 million in 2000. According to Pew Research, 381,000 more people left the Island between 1980 and 2013 than moved to Puerto Rico, with numbers spiking after 2010. By 2020, the population of Puerto Rico had fallen to 3.285 million.
In 2024, U.S. Census data indicated that Puerto Rico’s population had continued to decrease, although slowly, hitting 3.203 million. With one of the lowest birth rates in the world, this level of outmigration has left Puerto Rico with some serious population problems. An aging population with fewer able-bodied people of working age presents a lower tax base, fewer people to care for the elderly, and a less vibrant economy.
Would Independence Fuel a Mass Exodus?
Current indicators point to a strong expectation that independence would compel even more Puerto Ricans to leave the Island – immediately and possibly in droves.
Outmigration has spiked whenever major shocks increased perceived risk—after the 2007-2009 economic crisis, for example, and especially after Hurricane María, when over 135,000 people relocated within months. That pattern suggests political shock plus economic uncertainty could trigger similar or larger flows.
People may want to join their friends and families living in states rather than risk it if they perceive that Puerto Rico’s economy and political climate is about to descend into conditions resembling its many poorer neighbors.
Meanwhile, there is no current initiative among Puerto Ricans living stateside to move to Puerto Rico to replace the migration out of Puerto Rico. Any romanticized notions of stateside Puerto Ricans moving to and building a strong independent Puerto Rico are strictly theoretical right now.
What About U.S. Citizenship?
Under independence, it would just be a matter of time until Puerto Ricans would lose U.S. citizenship. Yet a 2024 poll found that 85% of Puerto Ricans consider their U.S. citizenship “very important.” Similarly, the last of three White House reports on the subject concluded in 2011 that “[a]ny status option that could conceivably result in the loss of U.S. citizenship by current U.S. citizen residents of Puerto Rico would, it seems, viewed with hostility by the vast majority of Puerto Ricans.”
There are always complications inherent in uprooting one’s life. The fate of U.S. citizenship would add a new wrinkle, impacting the migration pattern that would kick in once independence is perceived as a possibility. Since U.S. citizenship is not guaranteed or even to be expected under any type of independence, including free association, it is foreseeable that an impending independence could trigger a mass exodus from Puerto Rico to the states before the door closes.
Conversely, courts have not yet had the opportunity to speak directly on whether the group of people born in Puerto Rico but already living in a state would be able to keep their U.S. citizenship, but it may become less risky for Puerto Ricans living in a state to remain there as U.S. laws on citizenship sometimes impose residency requirements.
Other Consequences
Puerto Rico already faces shortages of workers in healthcare and education. Independence would require a strong workforce and new skills: negotiating treaties and trade agreements, building a new national government, managing the many offices and agencies currently overseen by the federal government, shoring up infrastructure without federal funding. Who would take on these jobs?
Puerto Rico could also expect to lose investments from the mainland. Companies faced with evolving laws in a new nation instead of the greater security of predictable U.S. standards in operations, finances, and law enforcement could decamp. Perhaps over time Puerto Rico could reinvent itself, but in the short term, multinational corporations, Puerto Rican entrepreneurs, and individual citizens in search of a stable life may be unwilling to stay for the transition.
Would Independence Strengthen Puerto Rican Culture or Weaken It?
Although it has been claimed that independence would strengthen and safeguard Puerto Rican culture, the reality is that robust communities must exist to make culture vibrant. So the question is worth asking: Who will be left in Puerto Rico if the Island becomes independent?
Independence, even if it eventually leads to a successful new nation, would begin with uncertainty and hardships. How many people would stay in an independent Puerto Rico to continue its vibrant culture? Who will make the new country strong?
