In 2024, a poll of Americans living in the states found that every state in the Union showed greater support for independence than found in Puerto Rico based on any poll or plebiscite. YouGov asked again this year and found changes.
Republican states want to stay
The biggest change was that Alaska and Hawaii didn’t get enough responses to be included. Both of the most recent states have historically had independence movements, and it would be interesting to see whether their residents’ views have changed. However, YouGov noted that overall, the average for states fell from 20% to 18%, with Republicans in red states driving the change. In 2024, President Biden, a Democrat, was in office. Now, with the Republican Trump in office, Republican states appear to be feeling more united with the United States.
In 2024, and in most earlier polls as well, Texas was the leader in calls for secession among the 48 contiguous states. The 2024 YouGov poll showed Texas with 31% showing support for independence, second only to Alaska’s 36%. Now, just 24% of Texans would be willing to secede.
California, a blue state, is now the leader in support for independence, with 27% saying yes. New Mexico and Washington, both at 25%, are also ahead of Texas. Maine and Minnesota came in at 23% and Oregon shows 21%. These seven states are the only ones above 20%.
However, there are three states at 20%: the red states of Arkansas, South Carolina, and Mississippi — no change for the first two and an increase for Mississippi, so these do not show the partisan pattern YouGov noticed.
The largest group of states in 2024 and 2026 fell between 14% and 19%, but this year 13 states fell below the 14% range. In 2024, only one state was at 13% and none were lower.
What about Puerto Rico?
In the 2024 plebiscite, 11.82% of Puerto Rico voters chose independence. While in 2024 this was a smaller percentage than any state, the 2026 results show several states at 11% and several more below that figure. The state least willing to secede, Idaho, showed just 7% of respondents saying yes to secession. This puts Puerto Rico low on the list of state populations supporting independence, but no longer at the bottom.
Unlike states, Puerto Rico could choose independence under the U.S. Constitution, or Congress could declare Puerto Rico independent without consulting voters.
Is it really support for independence?
This year, YouGov also asked respondents what they would want to do after seceding. Since states cannot legally secede from the Union, it may not be surprising that plenty of people who said they wanted to secede had no answer. In fact, almost half had no plans at all beyond secession, and 54% of Republicans were in this position.
Among those who had an answer to that question, 29% wanted to band together with other states to make a new country. 28% wanted to become an independent nation. This was the most popular choice for Republicans who wanted to seceded, with 41% choosing this possibility. Texas and California were the states most likely to choose to become separate nations. They are probably the most likely to be able to support independence. Oregon and Washington both preferred to join other states, as did Nevada, so if California agreed, the entire West Coast could form its own nation. New Mexico also wanted to unite with other states, so it could team up with Texas. There have been previous discussions about dividing up the country into multiple nations, and some respondents may have had something like this in mind.
Overall, more than half of the people who wanted to secede favored becoming a new nation, either on their own or with other states. But there were other possibilities as well. Respondents in states on the U.S.-Canada border sometimes wanted to leave the U.S. and join Canada. These people made up 14% of the respondents who wanted to secede. Also, among the respondents, 2% chose to join Mexico, and 1% wanted reunification with the United Kingdom, which would presumably be a question of having their state become a British colony again after 250 years of separation. Another 1% had various other countries they wanted to join.
Will any states secede?
Once again, no state has a majority of residents choosing independence. It is also still illegal for states to secede. States did attempt to secede in the past, when 11 states seceded from the Union and formed the Confederate States of America. The United States did not accept their separation, and the result was the Civil War. Without a very strong majority, it is unlikely that any state or group of states would consider repeating this.
The same is true for Puerto Rico — except that Puerto Rico could become an independent nation if Congress passed a law saying so. While a number of independence bills have been introduced in the past, none has come close to passing in Congress, and residents of Puerto Rico appear committed to retaining U.S. citizenship.
