Although there is a relatively small pocket of supporters for independence who live in Puerto Rico, there is also support for independence in the states. In fact, many states appear to have a greater interest in independence than has been reflected in Puerto Rico’s plebiscite votes.
The national poll
On February 14, YouGov released a national poll asking “Would you support your state seceding from the U.S.? The map below shows the percentages of respondents who said “yes.” Spoiler alert: every single state had a better showing for independence than Puerto Rico has ever had in its plebiscite votes.
Alaska leads the pack at 36%. Texas is next at 31% and California has 29%. Alaska and Texas are both red states and California is a blue state, so party alignment does not appear to be a major factor.
Two states, Oklahoma and New York (again, one blue and one red), come in at 28%. Hawaii and 16 other states fall between 20% and 25%. Minnesota has the smallest proportion of separatists at 13%, with the remainder of the states showing 14% to 19% yes votes.
Puerto Rico, with its 11.82% support for independence in the November plebiscite, is less in favor of independence than any current state. The U.S. territory even falls below the national average of 20%.
Why is Puerto Rico less in favor of independence than the states?
One possible reason is that Puerto Rico actually has the option of becoming an independent nation. States are not able to secede peacefully from the United States, so it may be easier to say “yes” to independence when there is no chance of actually having to cope with the loss of U.S. citizenship and other hardships involved. Just as stateside Puerto Ricans are more likely to favor independence for Puerto Rico, since they live in a state and would not have to go through the process of building a new nation, people thinking about independence for their states know they will never actually face the consequences of that decision.
If Puerto Rico ever voted for independence and Congress accepted that request, Puerto Rico would be faced with the need to put together a national government, the need for its own defense and currency, economic hardship, a likely exodus from an already dwindling population, an end to federal support for healthcare and nutritional assistance, and of course the loss of U.S. citizenship. While supporters of independence often imagine a different sort of future, with U.S. financial and practical support, most voters are aware of the hardships involved in independence. Naturally it is not a popular option.
The top stateside independence movements
Although every state has independence supporters, four states have had the strongest independence movements historically:
- Alaska actually elected a governor from the Independence Party.
- Texas was an independent nation for almost a decade.
- California has one of the largest economies in the world and could probably afford independence.
- Hawaii was annexed by the U.S. in 1889 and then had to wait until 1959 for full equality through statehood
Which states are likely to secede?
Although three states can be said to have independence movements, it is not legally possible for states to secede from the United States peacefully. Several states attempted to do so in the 1800s, President Lincoln refused to allow them to do so, and the United States was plunged into the Civil War. Even now, the Civil War is the deadliest war the United States has ever fought, with the largest number of American casualties. Roughly 2% of the entire population of the United States at the time lost their lives, and reuniting the states took generations.
This is probably not what the people saying they would like to secede are imagining.
Especially since there is no state in which the majority of the population wants independence, the chances of any states’ seceding are probably nil. Puerto Rico, with a smaller proportion of separatists than any state, is also unlikely to become independent, though it is legally possible.
